Methodology
How we estimate movement at the border
The movement forecast in the Tourism Intelligence Panel is a planning-support estimate — for the visitor and for the destination. This page explains, transparently, which signals feed the calculation, how often it runs and what its limits are today.
Signals used today
The current estimate is a transparent heuristic: it combines public, verifiable signals with no black box. Each signal adds or subtracts points, and the total sets the forecast level (low, moderate, high, very high).
Day of the week
Weekends and Fridays raise movement at attractions and border crossings; weekdays tend to be quieter.
Holidays in all three countries
A public holiday in any one — Brazil, Argentina or Paraguay — increases flow at the border. We cross-reference the official BR, AR and PY calendars.
Weather
A forecast of rain or storms reduces demand for open-air attractions (the Falls, the Three Frontiers Landmark).
Update frequency
The calculation is refreshed every 10 minutes with live weather, and the three countries' holiday calendars are revalidated daily. The exchange and weather data feeding the panel are collected three times a day and stored as a historical series.
Where it's headed
The roadmap takes the heuristic estimate to a validated predictive model, incorporating new signals and, above all, observed visitation data to measure accuracy.
Exchange rates
Sharp moves in the real, guaraní and peso shift the shopping flow in Ciudad del Este and Puerto Iguazú.
Events calendar
Festivals, concerts and conferences on the destination's agenda anticipate occupancy peaks.
Observed data
Once we integrate real visitor counts, the forecast moves from heuristic to a validated model, with a measured accuracy rate.
Honest disclaimer
The forecast is a planning-support estimate, not a guarantee. Real conditions vary with factors we don't capture (attraction operations, last-minute events, local weather). Use it to pick the best time and skip the queues — and always check each attraction's official sources before you go.
See the forecast in action on the Tourism Intelligence Panel.